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Nevua Markets is a platform that delivers real-time updates for topics that matter to you. It does this by leveraging Polymarket, the world’s biggest prediction market.

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AI-generated content

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Generative AI tools are available to everyone and are advanced enough to fabricate images, videos, and stories that are indistinguishable from truth.To make things worse, online discourse on any topic is often flooded by automated bots deploying computational propaganda, using algorithms and automation to manipulate public opinion and steer conversations at scale.

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Information Overload

We believe the information needed to understand any topic of interest is almost always publicly available.The challenge isn’t access to information; it’s filtering through the overwhelming noise and volume of information..

Doomscroll
There are simply too many sources to track: news outlets, social media accounts, specialized forums, government releases, and independent analysts all publishing constantly. The only way to stay truly informed on a topic is to consume an inordinate amount of data every single day. Dedicated Open-Source Intelligence (OSINT) teams prove this is possible. They do this grueling work very successfully. For example, the OSINTdefender account on X has amassed 1.6 million followers by meticulously tracking and verifying information around geopolitical events. But for most individuals, doing your own comprehensive research is simply too time-consuming. Combine that with our natural cognitive biases and human reasoning flaws, and you have a recipe for misinformation and incomplete understanding.

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Social media engagement at all costs

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Large social media accounts have strong incentives to capture and hold attention, often because engagement drives monetary gain.Unfortunately, this often does not align with delivering accurate, signal-rich information. Instead, sensationalism wins: stirring drama, triggering outrage, and sparking conflict all drive engagement metrics.The most viral content is often the most emotionally charged, not the most factual. This creates an environment where noise drowns out signal, and accuracy takes a back seat to controversy.

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Enter Prediction Markets

Prediction markets are perhaps our best tool to filter most of the noise and get to the actual signal.

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How they work

Check Polymarket’s documentation for a deep-dive explanation
Prediction markets distill all available information on a topic using a very simple method: they allow traders to bet on their belief of how an event will unfold. Traders are rewarded when they make the correct bets and take a loss when events go the other way.
  • By introducing bets and financial rewards, prediction markets create skin in the game dynamics and better incentives to be precise in predictions: people (and soon, AI bots!) that make correct predictions win real money.
  • Therefore, traders have the incentive to go to remarkable lengths to get an information edge and place their bets.
  • In markets where this applies, people with inside information may want to profit from an upcoming event and may place large bets. Being an open platform, Polymarket allows these transactions to be detected, and therefore propagate the signal that a trend shift may be underway.
Nevua Markets makes these real-time shifts accessible and understandable, so anyone can spot the signal before it hits mainstream news.

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Other platforms (Kalshi, Limitless, etc.)

There are many prediction market platforms. We focus on Polymarket because we believe that:
  • Polymarket will continue being the world’s biggest prediction market
  • Tens of thousands of markets for regional and smaller events will eventually be running on Polymarket
  • As more and more advanced traders enter the prediction market floor (quants, high-frequency trading, etc.), arbitrage between markets is going to be eliminated. The result will be actual market efficiency; similar markets will have almost the same odds across platforms

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We can’t always predict the future with certainty, but

  • Polymarket predictions demonstrate impressive accuracy even before events are resolved (source):
    • 95.2% accuracy just 4 hours prior to resolution
    • 91.1% accuracy as early as 1 month before the outcome
  • A big trend shift almost always means that something significant just happened, or is about to happen.
  • Market dynamics created by opposing traders provide very strong crowdsourced data for the current consensus of an event. When new information is available, traders will be the first to know, place their bets, and therefore change the odds of an event.
  • We believe that every topic worth discussing in politics, culture, etc. will be tracked on Polymarket.
Nevua Markets exists to help you see the world as it unfolds, through the collective intelligence of the market.